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Oxford Review of Economic Policy 2008 24(2):337-353; doi:10.1093/oxrep/grn019
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© The Authors 2008. Published by Oxford University Press. For permissions please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

This article appears in the following Oxford Review of Economic Policy issue: CLIMATE CHANGE [View the issue table of contents]

Climate change and Africa

Paul Collier*
Gordon Conway**
Tony Venables***
* Centre for the Study of African Economies, Oxford University, e-mail: paul.collier{at}economics.oxford.ac.uk
** Imperial College London and UK Department for International Development, e-mail: g-conway{at}dfid.gov.uk
*** Oxford University and UK Department for International Development, e-mail: tony.venables{at}economics.ox.ac.uk


  Abstract

The impact of climate change on Africa is likely to be severe because of adverse direct effects, high agricultural dependence, and limited capacity to adapt. Direct effects vary widely across the continent, with some areas (e.g. eastern Africa) predicted to get wetter, but much of southern Africa getting drier and hotter. Crop yields will be adversely affected and the frequency of extreme weather events will increase. Adaptation to climate change is primarily a private-sector response and should involve relocation of people, changes in the sectoral structure of production, and changes in crop patterns. The role of government is primarily to provide the information, incentives, and economic environment to facilitate such changes. Adaptation will be impeded by Africa's fragmentation into small countries and ethnic groups, and by poor business environments. On the mitigation side, there is a need to design emissions-trading frameworks that support greater African participation than at present, and that include land-use change. Mitigation undertaken elsewhere will have a major impact on Africa, both positive (e.g. new technologies) and negative (e.g. commodity price changes arising from biofuel policies).

Key Words: O1 • O3 • O55 • Q54

Views expressed are those of the authors and do not represent institutional positions. Thanks to the editorial board of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy and to Aditi Maheshwari and Malcolm Smart for helpful comments.

1 If two tonnes of CO2e per head were sold at $30 per tonne.


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