This article appears in the following Oxford Review of Economic Policy issue: LABOUR MIGRATION IN EUROPE [View the issue table of contents]
Scale, diversity, and determinants of labour migration in Europe
* IZA and University of Bologna, e-mail: zaiceva{at}iza.org
** IZA, Bonn University, and DIW Berlin, e-mail: zimmermann{at}iza.org
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Abstract |
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While global migration is increasing, internal EU migration flows have only increased slowly. This paper contributes to a better understanding of the determinants and scale of European migration. It surveys previous historical experiences and empirical findings including the recent Eastern enlargements. The determinants of migration before and after the 2004 enlargement and in the EU15 and EU10 countries are analysed using individual data on migration intentions. In addition, perceptions about the size of migration after the enlargement are studied. The potential emigrant from both old and new EU member states tends to be young, better educated and to live in larger cities. People from the EU10 with children are less likely to move after enlargement in comparison to those without family. There exists a correlation between individual perceptions about the scale of migration and actual flows. Better-educated and left-oriented individuals in the EU15 are less likely to perceive these flows as important.
Key Words: migration • EU east enlargement • migration intentions • determinants of labour migration
This is a shorter version of IZA Discussion Paper No. 3595. We thank Ira Gang, Mary Gregory, Douglas Krupka, Steve Nickell, Michael Shields, and an anonymous referee for very useful comments on an earlier draft.
1 We have compared figures from Eurostat online database for 2000 (column 1) with those in Eurostat Population Statistics (2006). With several exceptions, the figures were largely similar.
2 Note that the gross immigration rates follow a similar trend in all available EU15 countries with the exception of Germany, in which there is no decrease in 2006.
3 Note that, in principle, multiple answers are possible. Following Fouarge and Ester (2007a) we generate this variable according to the longest intended move.
4 In a pooled model for 2002 and 2005 for the EU10, a 2005 dummy was positive and significant confirming higher immigration intentions after the enlargement. However, its interactions with education and children dummies were not significant.
5 Since this question was asked only for the employed in 2005 and 2001 (in 2002 all individuals were asked if they were satisfied with their financial situation), we imposed it as equal to zero for those not employed in all years.
6 Regarding occupations, our analysis shows that the majority of those willing to move abroad are skilled manual workers both before and after enlargement, but also middle managers before and employed professionals after enlargement (Zaiceva and Zimmermann, 2008b). That may have important implications for designing appropriate immigration policies.
7 Note that marital-status variables were not available in the 2001 data, but we expect that household size and children variables capture that effect. Home ownership was also missing, but it was not significant (at the 5 per cent level) either in 2005 or for the EU10 countries.
8 We have also experimented with GDP per capita squared to test the migration ‘hump’ hypothesis (see Hatton and Williamson, 2005). However, for the EU10 both GDP and GDP squared were insignificant.
9 For the EU15 both GDP and GDP squared were insignificant in the 2005 regressions, and we found evidence for an inverse U-shape relation for 2001. However, other reasons than liquidity constraints mentioned in the literature are likely to drive that relation.
10 Note that responses in the ‘don't know’ category were treated as missing observations. The proportion of respondents with such answers was more than 20 per cent.
11 We have also estimated an ordered probit model using the multiple responses, but report the binary results only since we got no different conclusions.
12 We have also experimented with the ‘satisfaction with financial situation’ variable. However, it was not significantly different from zero.